What's the opposite of evolution? An interesting question about SCORM

So my friend Mark Friedman, down at JKDDC, posed the following question to his LinkedIn network:

"What do you think the SCORM E-Learning Reference Model will evolve into during the next 10 years? SCORM is literally 10 years old now - so guessing what it can evolve into (or not) in the next 10 years seems to be good question to ponder these days."

I just wanted to post a couple excerpts from the answers that Mark has received so far.

• "Where I see the technology going is being adopted by a major player in non-traditional learning for grade and high school students. The use of the technologies will be financed by non-traditional program dollars that states provinces and countries are setting aside to find ways of educating students that don't fit into a class room."  Sorry. I just don't see that happening - not because it technically couldn't but I just don't see the biz case that would drive that.
• "I'm not sure SCORM is still relevant. A lot of people are putting eLearning out there without really using SCORM (that is, their content is SCORM compatible, but doesn't really make use of the features); while I am a huge advocate of component-driven development, eLearning is one area where I feel that the tools for rapid prototyping and developing eLearning content have developed so rapidly that SCORM compliance is much less of an issue"
• "In my work, SCORM is already outdated. It was developed for the Federal Government 10 years ago. The individual sco's in the standard include both display and content. The purpose is to allow each SCORM compliant course or module to transfer tracking information no matter which LMS platform you are using. I work with multiple LMS systems and come across many problems with compatibility. It's not efficient to re-publish a course for every end user display platform."
• "While I agree with the general point made previously that SCORM is outdated, I also think you have to consider the question from the point of view of emerging models of learner behaviour and their drivers in the Mobile Web 2.0 world. Blended learning, personalized learning and social or collaborative learning are not driven by questions of whether objects within a program are SCORM-compliant."