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January 19, 2010

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Did Asimov et al. really envision radical leaps forward without any existing technology to base their ideas on? I would say that most of their ideas simply expanded on existing technology.

For example, computers were rare, room-sized machines when Asimov and Heinlein started writing, so the idea of personal or handheld computers? Almost completely absent from their work. Bruce Sterling once noted that some of his near-future cyberpunk was so far off it now reads like alternate history. (In his "Islands in the Net" from 1988 the main character has a video-phone but nothing like e-mail. She talks about what a great toy the fax machine is!)

Predicting/creating game changing technology is hard. The personal computer was itself a solution in search of a problem until visiCalc (the first spreadsheet program) suddenly made it useful for businesses.

Clark,

I don't think Don's totally wrong. In fact the one really compelling piece of his argument is when he asks people to come up with examples which pre-date the technology. I think most of the people arguing with him have been short on these examples.

I do think that part of this is semantics - what are we calling "design thinking"...I do think its probably difficult but not impossible to envision needs in the absence of the required technology.

I also think he erred in his comment on the post when he strayed into such fundamental human needs as fire. That set of needs, heat, warmth, cooked food, all pre-dated the taming of that technology. You are right that it is hard to remap needs onto new enablers but isn't that what the inventors are doing in their own mind? I don't think Edison created the light bulb just to see what would happen when you ran current thru a wire. he did it for a purpose didn't he?

Actually, Mark, I reckon Don's right, based upon two phenomena of our cognitive architecture. We're remarkably *bad* at seeing new applications of technologies. We suffer from 'set effects' (solving new problems in the same way as old problems) and 'functional fixedness' (using tools in the way we know, not new ways). Consequently, once a new technology is available, it typically takes a while before someone (serendipitously?) sees the new application.

Yes, we have fundamental needs, but remapping those to new enablers isn't an immediate process, but one of recognizing the affordance *and* embedding that in a sociocultural context (which is now me treading into your turf ;).

And I think of those opportunities we've missed (cf Amory Lovins).

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