Geez. I can't believe its been almost a month since I blogged. I can't remember the last break I took like that. It is tough to think about the catching up that faces me after a break like that but what the heck, I'll take a shot. So I started looking around for how to jump back in and I came across The Big Question from
the Learning Circuits Blog...."What are your predictions for learning for 2008?"
Turns out I'm feeling a little grumpy as I start back into blogging, so I'll say that as far as "learning" goes...I predict humans will keep doing essentially the same way they have for thousands of years. Learning won't change people...the way we seek to address it as it relates to our specific corporate, personal, and academic requirements will. Let's pretend though that the question was...what are your predictions for the e-learning/learning/training industry for 2008?
Continuing along the grumpy line (even though I am secretly pleased that my 2007 predictions in eLearn Magazine got a (generous) B- from Stephen Downes!), I'll say that:
1. Organizations will continue to fail to appreciate the strategic and differentiating nature that rich training and learning opportunities provide, that part of that failure will continue to rest with training departments' inability to articulate their alignment with the larger business goals.
2. We will all continue to go to a lot of conferences and will probably fail to implement about 90% of the great ideas that the discussions and networking generate there and we will all feel this as a vague dissatisfaction but we will be unable to articulate this to a degree that we (or more likely, an interested vendor) will be able to design a better alternative. That part of this failure is driven by the fact that the preservation of the current conference model has so much money tied up it and that the majority of the folks putting on these conferences (many of which I attend and support myself) have trouble seeing past not only the conference model but the business model as well.
3. Somewhere between OpenSocial and Facebook API, we will find a way to link the multitude of social networks that are fracturing our awareness.
4. We will continue to underestimate the differences and difficulty in bringing game design and instructional design together to exploit the best of both camps.
5. We will continue to think about Web 2.0 tools and methodologies as primarily technological issues as opposed to mainly cultural and organizational issues.
6. The Catch-All Technology Prediction: Memory gets cheaper, USB and SD card capacities will get ridiculously large (I mean we can already get an entire LMS on an USB drive right?), Vista will continue to suck, Leopard/Boot Camp/Parallels will continue to win new converts over to Apple and I will wonder about the place of e-learning specific standards and specs in a Web-based world dominated by other Web standards and best practices (SOAP, AJAX, etc).