August 21, 2008

Gartner Hype Cycle - Critique and Deconstruction

Gartnerhypecycle1So I've seen this image a few times now - its kind of making the rounds. This one came from a post on Techcrunch. The comments on that post get pretty fired up about the worth of something like this. I both understand the critique of something like popping out of a black box and you're just kind of left going...well I dunno what their data set was? There is addtl info in the full report but as someone pointed out, that over $1K U.S. and I guess that's part of the problem too...when something like this is developed and sold as a product in itself...how do we trust its authenticity without full disclosure? Does Gartner have client that are on the Hype Cycle? Would it hurt their stock options if they were in the trough versus the plateau?

On the other hand, I am attracted to the value in having a handy visual reference point for my folks "up the chain" so that I can point and say...see I'm not crazy! I actually want a way, a process by which I can gauge the maturity of a technology and then map that against my organizational requirements. I want to be able to say that if something is in the trigger phase but maps to a requirement, then we should invest a little and watch a lot. If something however, is on the plateau and also maps to a requirement then it becomes a no-brainer to go after.

I did find the Hype Cycle library interesting and thislook at how certain marketing efforts can match to phases on the cycle.

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